US Solar in 2026-2028: Steady, Not Spectacular

After years of record-breaking growth, American solar is entering a plateau, though a very high one. The US installed 43.2 GW in 2025, and the industry’s leading forecasters expect additions to hold at around 44 GW a year through 2031. The demand is there, but the limiting factors are now practical: permitting and interconnection bottlenecks, not a shortage of buyers. Solar is still on track to be the largest source of new US electricity generation, with EIA projecting solar output to rise from 291 billion kWh in 2025 to 418 billion kWh in 2027, as data centers and broader load growth push electricity demand higher. U.S. solar industry adds 43 GW in 2025, leading capacity additions for fifth consecutive year - pv magazine USA +3

Under the surface, the picture varies sharply by segment. Utility-scale projects are carrying the market, with 9.6 GWdc installed in Q2 2026 alone, up 61% from a year earlier. Rooftop solar has had a tougher year, as residential installations were expected to fall about 18% after the customer-owned tax credit expired. Commercial solar faces a similar dip in 2026, followed by a rush to meet tax credit deadlines in 2027. Community solar is the weakest link: it is projected to shrink about 12% a year from 2028 without new or expanded state programs. Geography matters too, since Texas alone is expected to host about 40% of 2026 utility-scale solar additions. Solar Market Insight Report Q3 2026 +4

The biggest question mark is policy timing. Developers that missed the July 2026 construction-start deadline now face a December 31, 2027 placed-in-service cutoff, which could create a build rush in 2027 and a possible slowdown in 2028 for those projects. A large pipeline of safe-harbored projects, which have until mid-2030 to finish, should cushion the market in the meantime. Add in trade policy, federal permitting delays, and the pace of data-center demand, and the realistic range for 2028 runs from roughly 36 to 50 GWdc, with a base case near the current level. The takeaway for homeowners, businesses, and investors alike is that solar’s growth is no longer explosive, but it is durable, and it remains the dominant way America is adding new power